European April sales figures released

JATO Dynamics has released the light vehicle sales for April and, while the news still isn’t good, it generally isn’t as bad as previous months. In fact, April had the smallest deficit so far in 2012.

Total European sales fell 6.1 percent in April and now lag 2011 by 7.1 percent. Germany and Great Britain, Europe’s leading markets, posted sales increases while the other three major European markets, France, Italy and Spain all came up short. French sales dropped a comparatively minor 1.9 percent while sales in Italy and Spain, which are both embroiled in serious financial problems, were down by double digits. To show how different the situations are in the U.S. and Europe, the April sales totals for the U.S. appear below the European totals.

Volkswagen, which managed to dodge the bullet for the first three months of 2012, finally took a hit. Total brand sales fell 7.7 percent, putting the Wolfsburg automaker in the red for the first four months of the year. Renault and Opel/Vauxhall were the month’s big losers. So far this year, Renault is in the worst shape with sales down 22.9 percent, beating Fiat’s 19.5 percent plunge. Of the top ten brands, only the three German luxury marques, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are still in the black in year-to-date sales.

When it comes to the top models, VW was covered in red ink. Big drops were reported for the Golf, Polo and Passat. Ford and GM models also failed to match their year-ago numbers, though Ford took some solace in the Fiesta outselling the Polo this April. Of the top ten models, only the Fiat Panda and the new BMW 3 Series beat their April 2011 numbers.

Outside the top ten, new models like the Volkswagen Up, Toyota Yaris, Audi A6 and Mercedes B-Class are achieving the largest sales improvements, underlining the need for the beleaguered automakers to do what it takes to roll out new models. An overripe product line has been one of the factors in Fiat’s poor performance in the market.

Commenting on the findings, Gareth Hession, Vice President, Research at JATO Dynamics said: “The April sales results again demonstrate the importance of new models in driving increased sales, in an environment as uncertain and highly competitive as the European new car market.”


EUROPEAN LIGHT VEHICLE SALES BY COUNTRY
Country Apr-12 Apr-11 Change YTD 2012 YTD 2011 Change
Austria (est.) 33,783 33,317 1.4% 122,547 121,182 1.1%
Belgium 48,326 53,300 -9.3% 196,689 223,204 -11.9%
Croatia 2,622 4,169 -37.1% 13,468 14,670 -8.2%
Cyprus 977 1,051 -7.0% 3,865 4,747 -18.6%
Czech Republic 16,589 14,620 13.5% 60,118 56,646 6.1%
Denmark (est.) 14,208 13,423 5.8% 54,852 54,165 1.3%
Estonia 1,765 1,538 14.8% 6,423 5,283 21.6%
Finland 4,061 11,378 -64.3% 51,823 47,027 10.2%
France 166,552 169,757 -1.9% 674,393 817,211 -17.5%
Germany 274,066 266,251 2.9% 1,047,702 1,029,654 1.8%
Great Britain 142,322 137,746 3.3% 705,878 696,082 1.4%
Greece 4,407 10,109 -56.4% 21,526 35,353 -39.1%
Hungary 4,318 3,729 15.8% 18,403 15,228 20.8%
Iceland 726 293 147.8% 1,802 828 117.6%
Ireland 6,770 8,683 -22.0% 52,668 56,642 -7.0%
Italy 130,245 158,741 -18.0% 538,967 676,139 -20.3%
Latvia 884 845 4.6% 3,372 3,215 4.9%
Lithuania 1,061 1,164 -8.8% 3,933 4,031 -2.4%
Luxembourg 5,373 5,221 2.9% 18,884 18,644 1.3%
Norway 11,028 11,530 -4.4% 46,085 45,529 1.2%
Poland 23,841 22,222 7.3% 101,396 89,727 13.0%
Portugal (est.) 10,068 14,426 -30.2% 33,600 60,023 -44.0%
Romania 4,307 4,999 -13.8% 18,272 14,676 24.5%
Serbia 2,224 4,178 -46.8% 7,460 10,800 -30.9%
Slovakia 5,794 5,676 2.1% 22,399 21,399 4.7%
Slovenia 4,362 5,007 -12.9% 18,687 21,660 -13.7%
Spain 56,183 71,732 -21.7% 256,690 280,213 -8.4%
Sweden 23,336 28,940 -19.4% 91,312 98,704 -7.5%
Switzerland 27,871 27,611 0.9% 106,438 100,895 5.5%
The Netherlands 41,174 47,624 -13.5% 207,863 228,018 -8.8%
Total Europe 1,069,243 1,139,280 -6.1% 4,507,515 4,851,595 -7.1%
United States 1,184,567 1,157,923 2.3% 4,651,956 4,218,042 10.3%
TOP 10 BRANDS
Brand Apr-12 Apr-11 Change YTD 2012 YTD 2011 Change
Volkswagen 139,124 150,658 -7.7% 572,485 578,551 -1.0%
Ford 79,632 88,130 -9.6% 365,122 394,032 -7.3%
Renault 70,654 85,025 -16.9% 296,738 384,733 -22.9%
Peugeot 70,557 74,024 -4.7% 288,654 340,471 -15.2%
Opel/Vauxhall 68,798 82,015 -16.1% 296,437 353,486 -16.1%
Citroen 61,782 59,125 4.5% 252,249 284,808 -11.4%
Audi 61,171 58,997 3.7% 241,364 231,627 4.2%
BMW 55,574 53,826 3.2% 212,912 211,701 0.6%
Fiat 55,008 61,845 -11.1% 209,146 259,684 -19.5%
Mercedes-Benz 50,896 48,303 5.4% 203,221 188,736 7.7%
TOP 10 MODELS
Model Apr-12 Apr-11 Change YTD 2012 YTD 2011 Change
Volkswagen Golf 37,151 42,492 -12.6% 159,773 166,083 -3.8%
Ford Fiesta 25,927 28,444 -8.8% 117,108 130,305 -10.1%
Volkswagen Polo 24,193 31,476 -23.1% 111,615 125,529 -11.1%
Renault Clio 20,604 22,336 -7.8% 86,946 111,359 -21.9%
Opel/Vauxhall Corsa 20,338 24,357 -16.5% 93,838 108,713 -13.7%
Opel/Vauxhall Astra 20,019 24,445 -18.1% 84,129 104,356 -19.4%
Ford Focus 19,677 21,008 -6.3% 94,547 92,679 2.0%
Fiat Panda 17,268 16,724 3.3% 65,516 72,280 -9.4%
BMW 3 Series 17,171 14,707 16.8% 53,928 53,001 1.7%
Volkswagen Passat 16,863 22,315 -24.4% 72,379 75,842 -4.6%
European sales figures: JATO Dynamics. U.S. sales figures: Autodata

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Analysts say April sales up but growth may be slowing

April sales reports should be coming out in a few hours, but the wizards of Wall Street and elsewhere have already placed their bets and made their predictions.

One of the things that has changed in the April forecasts compared to previous monthly estimates is a general consensus that the torrid seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) seen earlier this year, especially in February, was a blip, not a trend. SAAR estimates this month are more restrained: Jeff Schuster of LMC Automotive says the SAAR won’t even break 14 million. Most other analysts are looking on the low-to-mid 14 million range. That’s still an improvement, but fewer people are looking for a 15-million-sale year. That probably won’t happen until there is a solid and prolonged uptick in hiring.

Gas prices are still a hot topic even though they have been declining recently. The problem is that gas wasn’t that much cheaper last year, so the perception of high prices persists.

Honda is the one to watch this month. The second-largest Japanese automaker has mostly recovered from last year’s natural disasters in Japan and Thailand and is getting very aggressive about reclaiming lost market share. In addition to a high-visibility marketing campaign, Honda has really ramped up incentives. According to estimates from TrueCar.com, Honda increased its April incentives by eight percent over March of this year, more than any other manufacturer.

Everyone is looking for the pace of Chrysler’s sales growth to slow a bit. The smallest of the Detroit automakers has posted five months of 30-plus-percent gains; the analysts are looking for an improvement under 20 percent in April. That would still make 25 months of year-over-year sales increases.


BLOOMBERG ANALYST POLL
Analyst Representing GM Ford Chrysler SAAR
Patrick Archambault Goldman Sachs -7.10% -6.80% NA 14.2
Jessica Caldwell Edmunds.com -7.30% -6.50% 19% 14.4
Chris Ceraso Credit Suisse -12% 0.40% 15% 14.3
Alec Gutierrez Kelley Blue Book -15% -5.40% 14% 14.0
Brian Johnson Barclays Capital -8.80% -8.40% NA 14.2
Rod Lache Deutsche Bank -6.00% -12% 16% 14.2
Peter Nesvold Jefferies -8.70% -5.20% 16% 14.1
Emmanuel Rosner CLSA -6.80% -3% 13% 14.4
John Sousanis Ward’s -6.30% -6.7 14% 14.4
Joseph Spak RBC -11% -5.50% NA 14.2
Jesse Toprak TrueCar.com -10% -3.90% 18% 14.6
SAAR Forecasts Only
Alan Baum Baum & Associates NA NA NA 14.5
Adam Jonas Morgan Stanley NA NA NA 14.4
George Magliano HIS Automotive NA NA NA 14.2
Jeff Schuster LMC Automotive NA NA NA 13.8
Average -9% -5.70% 16% 14.3

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar.com both have more in-depth forecasts and it’s interesting to see the contrasts between the two in their April predictions. Caldwell and Toprak both have Honda outselling Nissan this month but Toprak also sees Toyota bumping Ford out of second place for the first time in almost a year.


EDMUNDS.COM SALES VOLUME FORECAST
Manufacturer Apr-12 Mar-12 Apr-11
GM 215,603 -6.69% -7.28%
Ford 176,917 -20.76% -6.54%
Toyota 174,923 -13.95% 9.64%
Chrysler 139,373 -14.69% 18.89%
Honda 123,919 -2.43% -0.71%
Nissan 79,678 -41.39% 11.40%
Industry 1,181,929 -15.82% 2.13%
EDMUNDS.COM MARKET SHARE FORECAST
Manufacturer Apr-12 Mar-12 Apr-11
Chrysler 11.80% 11.60% 10.10%
Ford 15.00% 15.90% 16.40%
GM 18.20% 16.50% 20.10%
Honda 10.50% 9.00% 10.80%
Nissan 6.70% 9.70% 6.20%
Toyota 14.80% 14.50% 13.80%


TRUECAR.COM SALES VOLUME FOREAST
Manufacturer Apr-12 Mar-12 Apr-11
GM 209,399 -9.40% -10.00%
Toyota 183,096 -9.90% 14.80%
Ford 181,898 -18.40% -3.90%
Chrysler 138,025 -15.50% 17.70%
Honda 115,105 -9.40% -7.80%
Hyundai/Kia 112,615 -11.50% 3.50%
Nissan 86,921 -36.20% 21.50%
Volkswagen 42,501 -11.80% 10.20%
Industry 1,195,809 -14.80% 3.40%
TRUECAR.COM MARKET SHARE FORECAST
Manufacturer Apr-12 Mar-12 Apr-11
Chrysler 11.50% 11.60% 10.10%
Ford 15.20% 15.90% 16.40%
GM 17.50% 16.50% 20.10%
Honda 9.60% 9.00% 10.80%
Hyundai/Kia 9.40% 9.10% 9.40%
Nissan 7.30% 9.70% 6.20%
Toyota 15.30% 14.50% 13.80%
Volkswagen 3.60% 3.40% 3.30%