Tag Archives: auto industry

Big Jump forecast for May sales

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The official reports aren’t due until Friday, but May is already shaping up to be an exceptional month with three of the leading analysts, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com, Jesse Toprak of TrueCar.com, and Jeff Schuster of J.D. Powers/LMC Automotive looking for sales volumes to jump 30-32 percent compared to May 2011 and up around 18 percent compared to April of this year.

Toyota sales are projected to nearly double compared to last year, when the full effects of the earthquake and tsunami were being felt by all of the Japanese manufacturers. Toyota is now at full steam and moving aggressively to recapture lost sales and market share.

Honda sales are forecast to have the next-largest improvement, up somewhere between 50 and 60 percent. Nissan, which was least affected by the disasters, is also expected to show the smallest improvement; Edmunds.com says 28.1 percent; TrueCar.com is looking for 37.0 percent.

Both Caldwell and Toprak predict Chrysler will report the largest year-over-year sales gain, partially due to increased incentive spending. TrueCar.com estimates Chrysler will spend an average of $3,104 per vehicle, the highest of any major automaker. In spite of the spending, Caldwell thinks Ford will post a larger improvement over April 2012, while Toprak sees both Ford and GM outperforming Chrysler in the same comparison.

Chrysler isn’t alone in boosting incentives: compared to April spending, Honda boosted incentives 50.8 percent; Toyota added 22.2 percent; Volkswagen put 20.7 percent more cash on the hood and Ford sweetened the pot with an 8.4 percent increase. Overall, TrueCar estimates overall incentive spending rose 4.0 percent compared to last month.

With the decline in gas prices and the coming of summer, sales of crossovers, SUVs and pickups are expected to improve. The most likely losers are smaller cars. Even in April, mid-size cars were a hotter segment than small cars, so it’s likely the trend will continue.


EDMUNDS.COM MAY SALES FORECAST
Manufacturer May-12 May-11 Change April-12 Change
General Motors 246,321 221,192 11.4% 213,387 15.4%
Ford 222,712 191,537 16.3% 179,658 24.0%
Toyota 205,391 108,387 89.5% 178,044 15.4%
Chrysler 164,083 115,363 42.2% 141,165 16.2%
Honda 135,908 90,773 49.7% 122,012 11.4%
Nissan 97,545 76,148 28.1% 71,329 36.8%
Industry 1,391,163 1,061,132 31.1% 1,184,027 17.5%
TRUECAR.COM MAY SALES FORECAST
Manufacturer May-12 May-11 Change April-12 Change
GM 258,072 221,192 16.7% 213,387 20.9%
Ford 211,689 191,537 10.5% 179,658 17.8%
Toyota 206,808 108,387 90.8% 178,044 16.2%
Chrysler 153,309 115,363 32.9% 141,165 8.6%
Honda 146,305 90,773 61.2% 122,012 19.9%
Nissan 104,312 76,148 37.0% 71,329 46.2%
Industry 1,400,665 1,061,132 32.0% 1,184,027 18.3%

All three analysts see a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in the mid-14-million range for the month and estimate 14.5 million sales for 2012.

TrueCar.com also breaks down its forecast by brand. The hottest brands in terms of year-over-year percentage growth are predicted to be Fiat, up 161.8 percent, Chrysler, up 104.2 percent, and Toyota, up 96.8 percent. In the cellar are Mitsubishi and Volvo, both predicted to miss their May 2011 numbers by 18.1 percent.


TrueCar.com Forecast May 2012 Sales by Brand
Forecast Change Change
Brands May-12 May-11 Apr-12
Ford 204,121 10.9% 17.8%
Chevrolet 184,924 14.6% 18.9%
Toyota 179,881 96.8% 16.1%
Honda 131,247 60.5% 19.5%
Nissan 94,054 34.8% 46.5%
Hyundai 72,465 22.4% 16.4%
Dodge 70,928 15.0% 6.3%
Kia 58,484 21.3% 23.0%
Jeep 44,364 24.7% 14.7%
GMC 40,589 24.5% 24.5%
Volkswagen 40,525 34.6% 8.0%
Chrysler 33,412 104.2% 4.8%
Subaru 29,802 48.7% 13.3%
Mazda 26,549 48.5% 23.4%
Mercedes-Benz 26,130 28.7% 7.5%
BMW 23,864 15.6% 13.3%
Lexus 20,405 65.8% 16.3%
Buick 19,211 23.3% 24.4%
Acura 15,058 67.3% 23.7%
Cadillac 13,348 14.8% 35.5%
Audi 12,831 22.7% 11.4%
Infiniti 10,258 60.6% 43.9%
Lincoln 7,568 2.3% 20.0%
Scion 6,522 38.9% 18.5%
Mitsubishi 6,201 -18.1% 17.4%
Mini 6,041 4.1% 5.4%
Volvo 6,029 -18.1% 24.4%
Fiat 4,605 161.8% 19.6%
Porsche 3,641 29.3% 5.9%
Land Rover 3,405 17.8% 3.4%
Suzuki 2,161 -5.6% 21.8%
Jaguar 1,218 -4.2% 13.5%
Smart 824 67.5% 7.9%

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European April sales figures released

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JATO Dynamics has released the light vehicle sales for April and, while the news still isn’t good, it generally isn’t as bad as previous months. In fact, April had the smallest deficit so far in 2012.

Total European sales fell 6.1 percent in April and now lag 2011 by 7.1 percent. Germany and Great Britain, Europe’s leading markets, posted sales increases while the other three major European markets, France, Italy and Spain all came up short. French sales dropped a comparatively minor 1.9 percent while sales in Italy and Spain, which are both embroiled in serious financial problems, were down by double digits. To show how different the situations are in the U.S. and Europe, the April sales totals for the U.S. appear below the European totals.

Volkswagen, which managed to dodge the bullet for the first three months of 2012, finally took a hit. Total brand sales fell 7.7 percent, putting the Wolfsburg automaker in the red for the first four months of the year. Renault and Opel/Vauxhall were the month’s big losers. So far this year, Renault is in the worst shape with sales down 22.9 percent, beating Fiat’s 19.5 percent plunge. Of the top ten brands, only the three German luxury marques, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz are still in the black in year-to-date sales.

When it comes to the top models, VW was covered in red ink. Big drops were reported for the Golf, Polo and Passat. Ford and GM models also failed to match their year-ago numbers, though Ford took some solace in the Fiesta outselling the Polo this April. Of the top ten models, only the Fiat Panda and the new BMW 3 Series beat their April 2011 numbers.

Outside the top ten, new models like the Volkswagen Up, Toyota Yaris, Audi A6 and Mercedes B-Class are achieving the largest sales improvements, underlining the need for the beleaguered automakers to do what it takes to roll out new models. An overripe product line has been one of the factors in Fiat’s poor performance in the market.

Commenting on the findings, Gareth Hession, Vice President, Research at JATO Dynamics said: “The April sales results again demonstrate the importance of new models in driving increased sales, in an environment as uncertain and highly competitive as the European new car market.”


EUROPEAN LIGHT VEHICLE SALES BY COUNTRY
Country Apr-12 Apr-11 Change YTD 2012 YTD 2011 Change
Austria (est.) 33,783 33,317 1.4% 122,547 121,182 1.1%
Belgium 48,326 53,300 -9.3% 196,689 223,204 -11.9%
Croatia 2,622 4,169 -37.1% 13,468 14,670 -8.2%
Cyprus 977 1,051 -7.0% 3,865 4,747 -18.6%
Czech Republic 16,589 14,620 13.5% 60,118 56,646 6.1%
Denmark (est.) 14,208 13,423 5.8% 54,852 54,165 1.3%
Estonia 1,765 1,538 14.8% 6,423 5,283 21.6%
Finland 4,061 11,378 -64.3% 51,823 47,027 10.2%
France 166,552 169,757 -1.9% 674,393 817,211 -17.5%
Germany 274,066 266,251 2.9% 1,047,702 1,029,654 1.8%
Great Britain 142,322 137,746 3.3% 705,878 696,082 1.4%
Greece 4,407 10,109 -56.4% 21,526 35,353 -39.1%
Hungary 4,318 3,729 15.8% 18,403 15,228 20.8%
Iceland 726 293 147.8% 1,802 828 117.6%
Ireland 6,770 8,683 -22.0% 52,668 56,642 -7.0%
Italy 130,245 158,741 -18.0% 538,967 676,139 -20.3%
Latvia 884 845 4.6% 3,372 3,215 4.9%
Lithuania 1,061 1,164 -8.8% 3,933 4,031 -2.4%
Luxembourg 5,373 5,221 2.9% 18,884 18,644 1.3%
Norway 11,028 11,530 -4.4% 46,085 45,529 1.2%
Poland 23,841 22,222 7.3% 101,396 89,727 13.0%
Portugal (est.) 10,068 14,426 -30.2% 33,600 60,023 -44.0%
Romania 4,307 4,999 -13.8% 18,272 14,676 24.5%
Serbia 2,224 4,178 -46.8% 7,460 10,800 -30.9%
Slovakia 5,794 5,676 2.1% 22,399 21,399 4.7%
Slovenia 4,362 5,007 -12.9% 18,687 21,660 -13.7%
Spain 56,183 71,732 -21.7% 256,690 280,213 -8.4%
Sweden 23,336 28,940 -19.4% 91,312 98,704 -7.5%
Switzerland 27,871 27,611 0.9% 106,438 100,895 5.5%
The Netherlands 41,174 47,624 -13.5% 207,863 228,018 -8.8%
Total Europe 1,069,243 1,139,280 -6.1% 4,507,515 4,851,595 -7.1%
United States 1,184,567 1,157,923 2.3% 4,651,956 4,218,042 10.3%
TOP 10 BRANDS
Brand Apr-12 Apr-11 Change YTD 2012 YTD 2011 Change
Volkswagen 139,124 150,658 -7.7% 572,485 578,551 -1.0%
Ford 79,632 88,130 -9.6% 365,122 394,032 -7.3%
Renault 70,654 85,025 -16.9% 296,738 384,733 -22.9%
Peugeot 70,557 74,024 -4.7% 288,654 340,471 -15.2%
Opel/Vauxhall 68,798 82,015 -16.1% 296,437 353,486 -16.1%
Citroen 61,782 59,125 4.5% 252,249 284,808 -11.4%
Audi 61,171 58,997 3.7% 241,364 231,627 4.2%
BMW 55,574 53,826 3.2% 212,912 211,701 0.6%
Fiat 55,008 61,845 -11.1% 209,146 259,684 -19.5%
Mercedes-Benz 50,896 48,303 5.4% 203,221 188,736 7.7%
TOP 10 MODELS
Model Apr-12 Apr-11 Change YTD 2012 YTD 2011 Change
Volkswagen Golf 37,151 42,492 -12.6% 159,773 166,083 -3.8%
Ford Fiesta 25,927 28,444 -8.8% 117,108 130,305 -10.1%
Volkswagen Polo 24,193 31,476 -23.1% 111,615 125,529 -11.1%
Renault Clio 20,604 22,336 -7.8% 86,946 111,359 -21.9%
Opel/Vauxhall Corsa 20,338 24,357 -16.5% 93,838 108,713 -13.7%
Opel/Vauxhall Astra 20,019 24,445 -18.1% 84,129 104,356 -19.4%
Ford Focus 19,677 21,008 -6.3% 94,547 92,679 2.0%
Fiat Panda 17,268 16,724 3.3% 65,516 72,280 -9.4%
BMW 3 Series 17,171 14,707 16.8% 53,928 53,001 1.7%
Volkswagen Passat 16,863 22,315 -24.4% 72,379 75,842 -4.6%
European sales figures: JATO Dynamics. U.S. sales figures: Autodata

Winners of 2012 Satisfaction Awards announced

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Autobytel and AutoPacific have announced the winners of their 16th annual Vehicle Satisfaction Awards. The awards are made to help consumers make informed vehicle purchase decisions with the assistance of a true “word of mouth” survey.

“In today’s market, it’s difficult to find a low-quality vehicle,” according to AutoPacific president George Peterson. “The quality of vehicles from all manufacturers has risen to the highest level in history and what delineates a car or truck is owner satisfaction.

“Consumer purchases are often influenced by objective awards especially when they are based on consumer sentiment. It was our goal to get the input from as many consumers as possible because ultimately, it’s the consumer’s opinion that counts.”

Autobytel and AutoPacific’s Vehicle Satisfaction survey measures how satisfied an owner is with his or her new vehicle. New vehicle owners provide input on 48 individual attributes that objectively measure the ownership experience such as driver’s seat comfort, power and acceleration, interior styling, exterior styling, cargo space/capacity, ease of getting in and out, and quietness inside the vehicle. This year’s study included more than 75,000 owners of vehicles from all major manufacturers.

“With hundreds of 2012 model year vehicles available, consumers need assistance to find a vehicle that’s right for them,” said Autobytel CEO Jeffrey Coats. “The 48 vehicle attributes we survey is detailed information that only a vehicle owner can provide, and that most consumers would want to know. Cars that score highest in the Vehicle Satisfaction survey appear to be delivering the highest value and consumer satisfaction across a wide range of attributes.” He added, “We are pleased to announce this year’s winners and congratulate them on their ongoing commitment to customer satisfaction.”


Highest Overall Satisfaction
2012 CADILLAC ESCALADE
Highest Satisfaction Premium Brand
MERCEDES-BENZ
Highest Satisfaction Popular Brand
BUICK
Highest Satisfaction: Passenger Cars
Top Rated Premium Luxury Car 2012 Mercedes-Benz S-Class
Top Rated Aspirational Luxury Car 2012 Mercedes-Benz C-Class
Top Rated Luxury Mid-Size Car 2012 Lincoln MKZ
Top Rated Large Car 2012 Chrysler 300
Top Rated Premium Mid-Size Car 2012 Volkswagen Passat
Top Rated Mid-Size Car 2012 Subaru Legacy
Top Rated Premium Compact Car 2012 Volkswagen GTI
Top Rated Compact Car 2012 Volkswagen Beetle
Top Rated Economy Car 2012 Chevrolet Sonic
Top Rated Sports Car 2012 Chevrolet Corvette
Top Rated Sporty Car 2012 Scion tC
Top Rated Hybrid Car 2012 Hyundai Sonata Hybrid
Highest Satisfaction: Trucks
Top Rated Heavy Duty Pickup 2012 Ford F-Series Super Duty
Top Rated Large Light-Duty Pickup 2012 Ford F-150
Top Rated Compact Pickup 2012 Nissan Frontier
Top Rated Luxury Sport Utility Vehicle 2012 Cadillac Escalade
Top Rated Large Sport Utility Vehicle 2012 GMC Yukon
Top Rated Premium Mid-Size Sport Utility Vehicle 2012 Jeep Grand Cherokee
Top Rated Premium Luxury Crossover SUV 2012 Mercedes-Benz ML
Top Rated Luxury Crossover SUV 2012 Cadillac SRX
Top Rated Large Crossover SUV 2012 Chevrolet Traverse
Top Rated Premium Mid-Size Crossover SUV 2012 Honda Pilot
Top Rated Mid-Size Crossover SUV 2012 Honda CR-V
Top Rated Compact Crossover SUV 2012 Volkswagen Tiguan
Top Rated Minivan 2012 Honda Odyssey
Top Rated Hybrid Truck 2012 Lexus RX450h Hybrid

Automakers to adopt new recharging system for EVs

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The stage is being set for a technology duel not unlike the Mac versus Windows or VHS versus Betamax battles.

U.S. and German automakers have agreed to adopt a new fast-charging technology that will recharge most compatible electric vehicles in as little as 15-20 minutes. This could be a major game-changer for battery and plug-in hybrid cars as it minimizes one of the key objections: the amount of time to restore the vehicle to usable condition. It’s also the technological equivalent of drawing a line in the sand as the Japanese have their own systems and so much of current EV technology is sourced through Japan.

The new Combined Charging System (CCS) – officially called DC-fast charging with a Combined Charging System – will be demonstrated at the World Electric Vehicle Symposium and Exhibition (EVS26) that opens tomorrow at the Los Angeles Convention Center and runs through Wednesday, May 9.

Audi, BMW, Chrysler, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, Porsche and Volkswagen will support the use and deployment of the CCS in the United States and Europe as well as designing their electric vehicles to use it.

The CCS integrates one-phase AC charging, fast three-phase AC charging, DC-charging at home and ultra-fast DC charging at public stations into a single vehicle inlet. This will allow EV owners to recharge at most existing charging stations regardless of power source and may speed more affordable adoption of a standardized infrastructure. SAE International (formerly the Society of Automotive Engineers), one of the world’s primary automotive standards organizations, has already chosen the Combined Charging System as the fast-charging methodology as its standard for incrementally extending the existing Type 1-based AC-charging. The SAE is to be officially published this summer. ACEA, the European association of vehicle manufacturers, has also selected the CCS as its AC/DC-charging interface for all new vehicle types in Europe beginning in 2017.

The charging system design was based on the collaborative review and analysis of existing charging strategies, the ergonomics of the connector and preferences of U.S. and European customers. The Combined Charging System was developed for all international vehicle markets and creates a uniform standard with identical electrical systems, charge controllers, package dimensions and safety mechanisms.

The system maximizes capability for integration with future smart grid developments through common broadband communication methods regardless of the global location of the charging system. The combined charging approach will reduce development and infrastructure complexity, improve charging reliability, reduce the total cost-of-ownership for end customers and provide low maintenance costs.

Commercially available combined charging stations are projected to be available later this year. All committed OEMs have vehicles in development which will use the Combined Charging System. First vehicles using this technology will be launched to the market in 2013.

Analysts say April sales up but growth may be slowing

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April sales reports should be coming out in a few hours, but the wizards of Wall Street and elsewhere have already placed their bets and made their predictions.

One of the things that has changed in the April forecasts compared to previous monthly estimates is a general consensus that the torrid seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) seen earlier this year, especially in February, was a blip, not a trend. SAAR estimates this month are more restrained: Jeff Schuster of LMC Automotive says the SAAR won’t even break 14 million. Most other analysts are looking on the low-to-mid 14 million range. That’s still an improvement, but fewer people are looking for a 15-million-sale year. That probably won’t happen until there is a solid and prolonged uptick in hiring.

Gas prices are still a hot topic even though they have been declining recently. The problem is that gas wasn’t that much cheaper last year, so the perception of high prices persists.

Honda is the one to watch this month. The second-largest Japanese automaker has mostly recovered from last year’s natural disasters in Japan and Thailand and is getting very aggressive about reclaiming lost market share. In addition to a high-visibility marketing campaign, Honda has really ramped up incentives. According to estimates from TrueCar.com, Honda increased its April incentives by eight percent over March of this year, more than any other manufacturer.

Everyone is looking for the pace of Chrysler’s sales growth to slow a bit. The smallest of the Detroit automakers has posted five months of 30-plus-percent gains; the analysts are looking for an improvement under 20 percent in April. That would still make 25 months of year-over-year sales increases.


BLOOMBERG ANALYST POLL
Analyst Representing GM Ford Chrysler SAAR
Patrick Archambault Goldman Sachs -7.10% -6.80% NA 14.2
Jessica Caldwell Edmunds.com -7.30% -6.50% 19% 14.4
Chris Ceraso Credit Suisse -12% 0.40% 15% 14.3
Alec Gutierrez Kelley Blue Book -15% -5.40% 14% 14.0
Brian Johnson Barclays Capital -8.80% -8.40% NA 14.2
Rod Lache Deutsche Bank -6.00% -12% 16% 14.2
Peter Nesvold Jefferies -8.70% -5.20% 16% 14.1
Emmanuel Rosner CLSA -6.80% -3% 13% 14.4
John Sousanis Ward’s -6.30% -6.7 14% 14.4
Joseph Spak RBC -11% -5.50% NA 14.2
Jesse Toprak TrueCar.com -10% -3.90% 18% 14.6
SAAR Forecasts Only
Alan Baum Baum & Associates NA NA NA 14.5
Adam Jonas Morgan Stanley NA NA NA 14.4
George Magliano HIS Automotive NA NA NA 14.2
Jeff Schuster LMC Automotive NA NA NA 13.8
Average -9% -5.70% 16% 14.3

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar.com both have more in-depth forecasts and it’s interesting to see the contrasts between the two in their April predictions. Caldwell and Toprak both have Honda outselling Nissan this month but Toprak also sees Toyota bumping Ford out of second place for the first time in almost a year.


EDMUNDS.COM SALES VOLUME FORECAST
Manufacturer Apr-12 Mar-12 Apr-11
GM 215,603 -6.69% -7.28%
Ford 176,917 -20.76% -6.54%
Toyota 174,923 -13.95% 9.64%
Chrysler 139,373 -14.69% 18.89%
Honda 123,919 -2.43% -0.71%
Nissan 79,678 -41.39% 11.40%
Industry 1,181,929 -15.82% 2.13%
EDMUNDS.COM MARKET SHARE FORECAST
Manufacturer Apr-12 Mar-12 Apr-11
Chrysler 11.80% 11.60% 10.10%
Ford 15.00% 15.90% 16.40%
GM 18.20% 16.50% 20.10%
Honda 10.50% 9.00% 10.80%
Nissan 6.70% 9.70% 6.20%
Toyota 14.80% 14.50% 13.80%


TRUECAR.COM SALES VOLUME FOREAST
Manufacturer Apr-12 Mar-12 Apr-11
GM 209,399 -9.40% -10.00%
Toyota 183,096 -9.90% 14.80%
Ford 181,898 -18.40% -3.90%
Chrysler 138,025 -15.50% 17.70%
Honda 115,105 -9.40% -7.80%
Hyundai/Kia 112,615 -11.50% 3.50%
Nissan 86,921 -36.20% 21.50%
Volkswagen 42,501 -11.80% 10.20%
Industry 1,195,809 -14.80% 3.40%
TRUECAR.COM MARKET SHARE FORECAST
Manufacturer Apr-12 Mar-12 Apr-11
Chrysler 11.50% 11.60% 10.10%
Ford 15.20% 15.90% 16.40%
GM 17.50% 16.50% 20.10%
Honda 9.60% 9.00% 10.80%
Hyundai/Kia 9.40% 9.10% 9.40%
Nissan 7.30% 9.70% 6.20%
Toyota 15.30% 14.50% 13.80%
Volkswagen 3.60% 3.40% 3.30%