Edmunds.com has proclaimed the new Chevrolet Sonic to be 2012′s “Rookie of the Year” based on its sales in the first half of the year. In addition to outselling all the other new models on the market based on both June and year-to-date (YTD) sales, the Sonic ranked No. 56 out of the 272 light vehicle models for which manufacturers reported deliveries. While that’s behind the Kia Soul and Nissan Versa, that ranking beats other established small cars like the Hyundai Accent, Ford Fiesta and Honda Fit. The Sonic also handily beats its predecessor, the Chevrolet Aveo.
Acarplace recently spent some time with a Sonic LTZ sedan and found it to be a very agreeable small car and a good value for the money.Click here to read our review.
Parents magazine and Edmunds.com today released their list of the Best Family Cars for 2012. For each of the past five years, their experts have checked out hundreds of new vehicles using safety and reliability as the primary criteria. Vehicles were also rated on performance, interior, exterior and family-friendly features. Every car on the list is equipped with antilock brakes, electronic stability control and a minimum of six air bags. Plus, a record 14 vehicles recommended by Parents/Edmunds.com earned a “Top Safety Pick” designation from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS).
In addition to their own staffs’ experiences, Parents and Edmunds.com talked to parents who own and drive these vehicles every day.
“The Best Family Cars of 2012″ feature appears in the July issue of Parents magazine on newsstands next Tuesday, June 12th.
The official reports aren’t due until Friday, but May is already shaping up to be an exceptional month with three of the leading analysts, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com, Jesse Toprak of TrueCar.com, and Jeff Schuster of J.D. Powers/LMC Automotive looking for sales volumes to jump 30-32 percent compared to May 2011 and up around 18 percent compared to April of this year.
Toyota sales are projected to nearly double compared to last year, when the full effects of the earthquake and tsunami were being felt by all of the Japanese manufacturers. Toyota is now at full steam and moving aggressively to recapture lost sales and market share.
Honda sales are forecast to have the next-largest improvement, up somewhere between 50 and 60 percent. Nissan, which was least affected by the disasters, is also expected to show the smallest improvement; Edmunds.com says 28.1 percent; TrueCar.com is looking for 37.0 percent.
Both Caldwell and Toprak predict Chrysler will report the largest year-over-year sales gain, partially due to increased incentive spending. TrueCar.com estimates Chrysler will spend an average of $3,104 per vehicle, the highest of any major automaker. In spite of the spending, Caldwell thinks Ford will post a larger improvement over April 2012, while Toprak sees both Ford and GM outperforming Chrysler in the same comparison.
Chrysler isn’t alone in boosting incentives: compared to April spending, Honda boosted incentives 50.8 percent; Toyota added 22.2 percent; Volkswagen put 20.7 percent more cash on the hood and Ford sweetened the pot with an 8.4 percent increase. Overall, TrueCar estimates overall incentive spending rose 4.0 percent compared to last month.
With the decline in gas prices and the coming of summer, sales of crossovers, SUVs and pickups are expected to improve. The most likely losers are smaller cars. Even in April, mid-size cars were a hotter segment than small cars, so it’s likely the trend will continue.
EDMUNDS.COM MAY SALES FORECAST
Manufacturer
May-12
May-11
Change
April-12
Change
General Motors
246,321
221,192
11.4%
213,387
15.4%
Ford
222,712
191,537
16.3%
179,658
24.0%
Toyota
205,391
108,387
89.5%
178,044
15.4%
Chrysler
164,083
115,363
42.2%
141,165
16.2%
Honda
135,908
90,773
49.7%
122,012
11.4%
Nissan
97,545
76,148
28.1%
71,329
36.8%
Industry
1,391,163
1,061,132
31.1%
1,184,027
17.5%
TRUECAR.COM MAY SALES FORECAST
Manufacturer
May-12
May-11
Change
April-12
Change
GM
258,072
221,192
16.7%
213,387
20.9%
Ford
211,689
191,537
10.5%
179,658
17.8%
Toyota
206,808
108,387
90.8%
178,044
16.2%
Chrysler
153,309
115,363
32.9%
141,165
8.6%
Honda
146,305
90,773
61.2%
122,012
19.9%
Nissan
104,312
76,148
37.0%
71,329
46.2%
Industry
1,400,665
1,061,132
32.0%
1,184,027
18.3%
All three analysts see a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) in the mid-14-million range for the month and estimate 14.5 million sales for 2012.
TrueCar.com also breaks down its forecast by brand. The hottest brands in terms of year-over-year percentage growth are predicted to be Fiat, up 161.8 percent, Chrysler, up 104.2 percent, and Toyota, up 96.8 percent. In the cellar are Mitsubishi and Volvo, both predicted to miss their May 2011 numbers by 18.1 percent.
If you have a need for raw, primal, screaming speed and horsepower in truly large doses, we’ve got your shopping list. Satisfaction is guaranteed; there’s not a car on it that generates less than 500 horsepower as delivered.
Topping the list is the SSC Ultimate Aero with a 6.3-liter V8 that churns out 1,287 horsepower and a stump-pulling 1,112 foot-pounds of torque. SSC stands for Shelby Supercars but it’s not the Shelby that first comes to mind. The company was founded in 1999 by Jerod Shelby, an automotive enthusiast. SSC’s headquarters is in Tri-Cities, Washington, Shelby’s hometown.
SSC was created with the goal of becoming a world class automotive manufacturer. After seven years in development, the Ultimate Aero made a spash on September 13, 2007 when it set a new record of 257.41 miles per hour to become the world’s fastest production car, beating the previous mark set by the Bugatti Veyron. It took Bugatti and Volkswagen more than two years to field the 1,200-horsepower Veyron 16.4 Super Sport that would reclaim the crown and reset the bar at 267.86 miles per hour.
In case the Ultimate Aero isn’t quite enough, SSC has unveiled the Tuatara, a futuristic sports car created to take the speed record back again.
Also on Inside Line’s list are John Hennessey’s Venom GT, Steve Saleen’s S7 Turbo, the (Carroll) Shelby GT500, the SRT Viper and Corvette ZR1, all mixed in with a dazzling array of hot exotics.
April sales reports should be coming out in a few hours, but the wizards of Wall Street and elsewhere have already placed their bets and made their predictions.
One of the things that has changed in the April forecasts compared to previous monthly estimates is a general consensus that the torrid seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) seen earlier this year, especially in February, was a blip, not a trend. SAAR estimates this month are more restrained: Jeff Schuster of LMC Automotive says the SAAR won’t even break 14 million. Most other analysts are looking on the low-to-mid 14 million range. That’s still an improvement, but fewer people are looking for a 15-million-sale year. That probably won’t happen until there is a solid and prolonged uptick in hiring.
Gas prices are still a hot topic even though they have been declining recently. The problem is that gas wasn’t that much cheaper last year, so the perception of high prices persists.
Honda is the one to watch this month. The second-largest Japanese automaker has mostly recovered from last year’s natural disasters in Japan and Thailand and is getting very aggressive about reclaiming lost market share. In addition to a high-visibility marketing campaign, Honda has really ramped up incentives. According to estimates from TrueCar.com, Honda increased its April incentives by eight percent over March of this year, more than any other manufacturer.
Everyone is looking for the pace of Chrysler’s sales growth to slow a bit. The smallest of the Detroit automakers has posted five months of 30-plus-percent gains; the analysts are looking for an improvement under 20 percent in April. That would still make 25 months of year-over-year sales increases.
BLOOMBERG ANALYST POLL
Analyst
Representing
GM
Ford
Chrysler
SAAR
Patrick Archambault
Goldman Sachs
-7.10%
-6.80%
NA
14.2
Jessica Caldwell
Edmunds.com
-7.30%
-6.50%
19%
14.4
Chris Ceraso
Credit Suisse
-12%
0.40%
15%
14.3
Alec Gutierrez
Kelley Blue Book
-15%
-5.40%
14%
14.0
Brian Johnson
Barclays Capital
-8.80%
-8.40%
NA
14.2
Rod Lache
Deutsche Bank
-6.00%
-12%
16%
14.2
Peter Nesvold
Jefferies
-8.70%
-5.20%
16%
14.1
Emmanuel Rosner
CLSA
-6.80%
-3%
13%
14.4
John Sousanis
Ward’s
-6.30%
-6.7
14%
14.4
Joseph Spak
RBC
-11%
-5.50%
NA
14.2
Jesse Toprak
TrueCar.com
-10%
-3.90%
18%
14.6
SAAR Forecasts Only
Alan Baum
Baum & Associates
NA
NA
NA
14.5
Adam Jonas
Morgan Stanley
NA
NA
NA
14.4
George Magliano
HIS Automotive
NA
NA
NA
14.2
Jeff Schuster
LMC Automotive
NA
NA
NA
13.8
Average
-9%
-5.70%
16%
14.3
Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com and Jesse Toprak of TrueCar.com both have more in-depth forecasts and it’s interesting to see the contrasts between the two in their April predictions. Caldwell and Toprak both have Honda outselling Nissan this month but Toprak also sees Toyota bumping Ford out of second place for the first time in almost a year.
EDMUNDS.COM SALES VOLUME FORECAST
Manufacturer
Apr-12
Mar-12
Apr-11
GM
215,603
-6.69%
-7.28%
Ford
176,917
-20.76%
-6.54%
Toyota
174,923
-13.95%
9.64%
Chrysler
139,373
-14.69%
18.89%
Honda
123,919
-2.43%
-0.71%
Nissan
79,678
-41.39%
11.40%
Industry
1,181,929
-15.82%
2.13%
EDMUNDS.COM MARKET SHARE FORECAST
Manufacturer
Apr-12
Mar-12
Apr-11
Chrysler
11.80%
11.60%
10.10%
Ford
15.00%
15.90%
16.40%
GM
18.20%
16.50%
20.10%
Honda
10.50%
9.00%
10.80%
Nissan
6.70%
9.70%
6.20%
Toyota
14.80%
14.50%
13.80%
TRUECAR.COM SALES VOLUME FOREAST
Manufacturer
Apr-12
Mar-12
Apr-11
GM
209,399
-9.40%
-10.00%
Toyota
183,096
-9.90%
14.80%
Ford
181,898
-18.40%
-3.90%
Chrysler
138,025
-15.50%
17.70%
Honda
115,105
-9.40%
-7.80%
Hyundai/Kia
112,615
-11.50%
3.50%
Nissan
86,921
-36.20%
21.50%
Volkswagen
42,501
-11.80%
10.20%
Industry
1,195,809
-14.80%
3.40%
TRUECAR.COM MARKET SHARE FORECAST
Manufacturer
Apr-12
Mar-12
Apr-11
Chrysler
11.50%
11.60%
10.10%
Ford
15.20%
15.90%
16.40%
GM
17.50%
16.50%
20.10%
Honda
9.60%
9.00%
10.80%
Hyundai/Kia
9.40%
9.10%
9.40%
Nissan
7.30%
9.70%
6.20%
Toyota
15.30%
14.50%
13.80%
Volkswagen
3.60%
3.40%
3.30%
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